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Investment uncertainty is focused on the nature of the current spike in inflation, which the Fed argues is transitory, though a growing number of people do not buy this narrative. Historically, the Fed has never been able to head off any longer-lasting inflation uptrends without a recession. A longer-lasting inflationary outlook seems unlikely without a meaningful break in the U.S. dollar. H2 2021 should resolve any job market distortions caused by the temporary, excessive unemployment benefits, which will help clarify the labor supply picture.
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