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Mid-Year Outlook: Lots In The Air

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Investment uncertainty is focused on the nature of the current spike in inflation, which the Fed argues is transitory, though a growing number of people do not buy this narrative. Historically, the Fed has never been able to head off any longer-lasting inflation uptrends without a recession. A longer-lasting inflationary outlook seems unlikely without a meaningful break in the U.S. dollar. H2 2021 should resolve any job market distortions caused by the temporary, excessive unemployment benefits, which will help clarify the labor supply picture.

...read full article on Seeking Alpha

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